Tuesday, September 23, 2008


Today is Tuesday, 23 September 2008.

Guerilla war, counter-insurgency, asymmetrical warfare.

The US military keeps changing the brand name.

Reality: a large, powerful, ponderous war machine confronts a swarm of small, less-powered, nimble military units.

That Gulliver thang. That Nam thang. That Iraq thang.

(Ought not one expect a Learning Curve here?)

McBush and W.Cain hail “The Surge”: it’s broken the back of The Insurgency, and Violence is Down.

For several thousand years, long before Lao Tzu, any fool knew: attack your enemy at their weakness, withdraw from their strength.


Since before The Surge began, I’ve argued that violence was declining because sectarian violence was no longer so necessary: the objectives of ethnic cleansing in the non-Kurdish 2/3 of Iraq had already been achieved. Shi'ites and Sunnis had already been driven into and/or cannily withdrawn into religiously-pure enclaves.

Seems like reality agrees: http://www.reuters.com/article/scienceNews/idUSN1953066020080919?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0

The foregoing analysis of satellite night photos shows religious homogenization: religious cleansing was completed before the surge.

Guess the Cavalry, arrived after the Calvary.


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