Wednesday, November 08, 2006

Don't Cheer Just Yet, Part 1

Today is Tuesday, 8 November 2006.

As I’ve written before, the Conquest of Iraq and the Vietnam War have at least one very crucial difference: the degree of geopolitical significance.

The Vietnam War, more properly the Indochina Wars, lasted 30 years: 1945 to 1954, when France, financed by the USA/United States Empire, vainly attempted to re-conquer its former colonies, and 1954 to 1975, when the USA/USE vainly attempted to retain its colony of South Vietnam. Between 5 and 6 million human beings, mostly civilians were murdered, and tens of millions more wounded, permanently maimed, or terrorized.

But, Indochina had minimal to no geopolitical value to the USA/USE in its greater struggle with the USSR.

Iraq is far different. It sits on an ocean of oil, amidst more oceans of oil.

Consider. The civil war is now at the small-unit, guerilla warfare stage. Most likely, were USA/USE troops to withdraw, it would swiftly accelerate into the large-unit stage. The militias would form into companies, battalions, brigades, divisions. The army would probably fragment along sectarian and ethnic lines, taking heavy weaponry with them. Formal pitched battles, aimed at occupation of territory, would ensue, along the lines of the former Yugoslavia.

Iran would be greatly attempted to intervene on the side of the Shiites, as would Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States on the side of the Sunnis. Turkey might decide it was time to liquidate the Kurdish problem. Israel would go on high alert, and might be tempted to bomb Iranian nuclear sites. Short- and medium-range conventional missiles would undoubtedly be fired against oil fields and facilities. Russia might see an opportunity to curry favor with one side or another.

Oil production would be disrupted and greatly diminished. Global recession would most likely result, perhaps even depression.

A fine mess you’ve got us into, George.

As a civilian military and geopolitical genius, Supreme Warlord George is right up there with Stalin and Saddam Hussein.

He invades and conquers a nation pasted together by British imperialism, stands by with inadequate troops to prevent major looting which destroys much of the nation’s infrastructure (“Stuff happens”), is so ignorant of the country he doesn’t know it has a long history of bitter and violent religious and ethnic strife just waiting to re-ignite, then, like a Texas Nero, clears brush on the ranch while Baghdad burns …


On this day in history:

1932 – Franklin D. Roosevelt elected in a landslide (Bush makes Herbert Hoover look like a genius)

1966 – Edward Brooke elected first African-American senator

1989 – Douglas Wilder elected first African-American governor


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